Monday, June 29, 2009



That’s the year Scott McLeod says we’re without a paddle.

Here’s the equation from his NECC session this afternoon:

K-12 education is facing disruptive innovation. It’s [called] personalized learning.

The existing educational model is not a given.

All of this is going to sneak up on educational organizations.

Looking at the exponential curve with regards to technology and personalization in education, McLeod predicts half of high school courses will be online by 2019.

Another way of thinking about it is like this: in ten years time, most of the basics of how we’ve thought about servicing education will be toast.

We'd be wise to review Dewey: "Communication is shared experience". And while we're at it, let's update Dewey: "Communication is shared experience is education. And immediate, global, connected shared experience is communication".

Ten years.


  1. I think McCloud is off by somewhere between four and six years. This stuff is going to move exponentially fast as more homeschoolers, unschoolers, charter schools and other schools move into this realm.

    Plus, the kids are going to come online. So I think 2011 to 2013

  2. I think Scott is underestimating the desire of two-income households to want their children to be in some kind of supervised school setting for much of the year. In fact, there are many who are calling for longer school years and longer school days. To paraphrase: Don't be too proud of this technological "wonder" you've created, the ability to access information anywhere is insignificant next to the power of parents to have free child care provided by the state.

  3. Just to clarify, that was Christensen's prediction - not mine - as he analyzed the numbers to date and saw where we were on an exponential curve.

    For the record, I agree with TeachJ. Never underestimate the need of parents for schools to be babysitters.

  4. @Scott

    Duly noted. Though I think the 2019 date is a good one.


    Just because we are talking about online learning doesn't mean we're talking about an unsupervised or non-professional setting. While some kids could learn online from home, I think this situation is one where libraries, media centers, community Internet access centers, museums, and alternative professional/academic environments such as computing in Ed Schools, Medical Schools (what could be better for bio class), and a variety of sites will really change the physical landscape of what it means to 'go to school'. It could work in such a way that not much would change for the family in terms of scheduling.


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